The college football landscape is evolving, and the gap between the FBS and FCS is widening. The FCS upset over a Power Four opponent, once a regular occurrence, has become a rare sight. Since 2022, Power conference teams have dominated FCS competition, winning 223 out of 225 games. This trend is further emphasized by the 125-game winning streak against FCS opponents, the longest in college football history. The transfer portal and NIL have significantly contributed to this shift, making it increasingly difficult for FCS programs to retain their top talent.
However, the possibility of an upset remains, and 2026 could be the year it happens again. With over 120 FBS vs. FCS matchups, the stage is set for potential upsets, especially in games featuring preseason top-25 FCS teams. Among these, six games stand out as potential shockers.
South Dakota State at Northwestern: South Dakota State, a two-time FCS national champion, faces a challenging task against Northwestern, which has a history of FCS upset losses. The Jackrabbits' quarterback, Chase Mason, and their recent success against Power Four opponents make this a fascinating contest.
Youngstown State at Kentucky: Youngstown State, led by the Walter Payton Award winner Beau Brungard, presents a formidable challenge to Kentucky, which is expected to excel after a top-10 transfer portal class. The Penguins' quarterback's ability to make plays could be the key to an upset.
North Dakota at Nebraska: North Dakota, under the leadership of Matt Rhule, has the talent to cause problems for Nebraska. The Fighting Hawks' dual-threat quarterback, Jerry Kaminski, and All-American edge rusher, Lance Rucker, nearly pulled off an upset at Kansas State. This game could be a close contest.
Tennessee Tech at Mississippi State: Mississippi State, with a tough schedule, could be vulnerable to Tennessee Tech, which had a strong 2025 season. The Golden Eagles' coach, Bobby Wilder, has reloaded with a strong transfer class, making this a potential upset scenario.
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt: After a breakthrough season, Vanderbilt faces a challenge with the departure of quarterback Diego Pavia. Austin Peay, led by the talented Chris Parson, has the firepower to cause problems for the Commodores, who are expected to take a step back.
Monmouth at West Virginia: Monmouth, a consistent Group of Six team, takes on a West Virginia team undergoing significant roster turnover. The Mountaineers' perfect record against FCS opponents could be tested by the Hawks, who have given Group of Six teams fits in recent years.
These games highlight the potential for upsets in 2026, but breaking the Power Four's winning streak will require a near-perfect alignment and a bit of luck for the FCS teams. The talent gap is significant, but in college football, anything can happen on a Saturday.
